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Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts

Monday, November 23, 2009

China Mine Blast Toll Tops 100


The number of workers killed by a gas explosion at a mine in northeastern China has risen to more than 100.

The official Xinhua news agency said at the time of the pre-dawn blast at the Xinxing mine in Heilongjiang province on Saturday, there were 528 workers in the colliery, and 420 of them had been rescued by Sunday night.

The authorities said 104 were dead and four more were still missing or unaccounted for, believed to be trapped about 500 metres underground.

Some 300 rescue workers were working round-the-clock in search of the missing men but Chinese media said dense gas and collapsed tunnels made the effort slow-going.

There were reports quoting an unnamed employee as saying that the mine's director, deputy director and chief engineer had been fired after the incident.

But Zhang Jinguang, a spokesman for the mining company, told reporters it was an act of nature, and not caused by human error.

"There was no sign that this accident might happen. If there had been, we could have controlled it. On top of that, as I just said, it was a huge and sudden coal and gas explosion like a bomb," he said.

"Development is important, but the growth of GDP shouldn't be achieved at the price of miners' blood"

Li Zhanshu, Heilongjiang provincial governor

Still, Saturday's incident at the nearly 100-year-old mine near the Russian border once again highlighted how heavy demand for power-generating coal in the world's third-largest economy has sometimes come at a high human cost.


Li Zhanshu, the provincial governor, urged officials to better manage coal mines.

"Development is important, but the growth of GDP shouldn't be achieved at the price of miners' blood," he said.

The deadliest accident in China's mining industry in two years was a blow to the central government's efforts to improve safety in the world's deadliest mine industry.

Hundreds of smaller, private mines have been shut down or absorbed into state-owned operations.

Compared to other manual jobs, Chinese coal miners can earn relatively high wages, tempting workers and farmers into rickety and poorly-ventilated shafts.

In the first half of the year, 1,175 people died in officially recorded coal mine accidents across China, a fall of 18.4 per cent compared to the same time last year, according to the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety.

Quoted from: Al-Jazeera.net

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Thursday, October 29, 2009

Trade Expo Opens Amid Green Shoots

Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu on Wednesday officially opened the annual Trade Expo Indonesia amid an improving international market outlook with “green shoots” sprouting in the global economy.
The concerted efforts Indonesia had made to diversify its export market had begun to bear fruits, with a steady increase in sales to non-traditional markets such as Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bangladesh, Brazil and Bulgaria, Mari said.

“We will further increase our marketing efforts by opening several more international promotion centers overseas, notably in countries with promising markets for our products,” Mari said.

The four-day trade expo, displaying a wide range of Indonesian natural-resource commodities and manufactured goods, attracted more than one thousand foreign buyers from the US, Europe, New Zealand and the Middle East, as well as other parts of Asia.

The Trade Ministry would also improve cooperation with other government agencies such as the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) and Culture and Tourism Ministry in promoting Indonesia’s export products overseas, Mari said.

Since September 2008, Indonesian exports have declined sharply on impacts of the global financial crisis and economic slump.

Recent data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) shows that Indonesian exports fell around 15 percent to US$10.55 billion in August, from a year earlier.

For the first eight months of this year, exports reached a total of $70.30 billion, down 26.30 percent.

Of this figure, non-oil goods accounted for $60 billion, 18.31 percent less than for the same period last year. Manufactured exports suffered the biggest decrease (25 percent) in the eight-month period.

However, exports in August booked a month-on-month increase of almost 9 percent from those in July, of which non-oil commodities accounted for $8.91 billion, down 6.28 percent from July last year.

Major export destinations in August were Japan, the US, China and the European Union.

The monthly export development indicated that after a year of pain and pessimism, there are clear signs of an economic recovery and that green shoots are beginning to sprout, although the economy is not out of the woods yet.

At the opening ceremony, Mari also honored 26 small and large companies with Primaniyarta export awards for outstanding performance in the international market.

Outstanding among those awarded was PT Musim Mas, an integrated palm oil company based in Medan, North Sumatra, which had won the ward for the 10th time, and PT Megasurya Mas, also a palm oil-based company in Sidoarjo, East Java, winning for the fifth time.

Other notable winners included PT Indorama Synthetics, LG Electronics Indonesia, PT Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper, PT Sorini Agro Asia Corp., PT Timah, PT Eagle Glove Indonesia and PT Cahaya Sakti Furintraco.


The expo’s opening day attracted more than 1,000 foreign buyers.

quoted from: THE JAKARTA POST

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Monday, August 31, 2009

Challenges Await Japan’s New Government Under DPJ

SINGAPORE (ICIS news)--Discontent over economic plight ended more than half-a-century rule of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan, but a new government does not guarantee its problems will be solved immediately, economists said on Monday.

LDP conceded defeat to opposition party – the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) - led by Yukio Hatoyama, which won a historic victory in the country’s general elections.

Japanese citizens went out to vote over the weekend following data showing the country had a record unemployment rate in July at 5.7%.

“It certainly is a significant historical event but as far as the economy is concerned, it will face the same constraint, [Japan’s] budget deficit is widening,” said David Cohen, Singapore-based regional economist at consultancy firm Action Economics.

The link between the election outcome and the worst crisis Japan has faced since the Second World War has been “pretty direct”, he said. 

Japan, the world’s second biggest economy, has been the worst hit when global demand collapsed. Most analysts expect the Japanese economy to contract by 5.0-6.0% this year. 

Economists said DPJ would likely build on the measures implemented by the LDP in stimulating the domestic economy.

“I don’t see a significant change [in policy]. Their first priority is the recovery of the economy,” said Naito Toshihiko, Tokyo-based economist at rating firm Japan Credit Ratings (JCR).

DPJ has the aim to do a structural shift to ensure the domestic economy would fuel growth and not exports going forward.

“[The policies] are clearly well-intentioned. The issue investors are waiting to see now is how these policies will get funded,” said Lim Su Sian, Singapore-based economist at DBS Bank. 

Japan has the biggest deficit to GDP ratio estimated to hit 9% in the fiscal year ending March 2010, which would constrain the government’s ability to shell out more funds to pump-prime the economy, analysts said.

The government has had to give up its initial target of achieving fiscal balance, when revenues would match expenses, by 2011. 

With hefty government spending needed to continue spurring economic activities, JCR’s Toshihiko said a more realistic target of achieving fiscal balance would be in 2017-2018.

There were also concerns that the change in government would distract Japan from its focus on recuperating from the recession, analysts added.

Economic numbers have so far been encouraging, with manufacturing output on its fifth month of growth in July.

But the story remains the same – Japan’s recovery hinges on recovery of global demand.

Consumer and business spending account for about three-fourths of the Japanese economy but it was exports that had been driving growth, which proved to be the country’s Achilles heel when the global financial and economic meltdown struck in late 2008.

This economic model will have to be recast based on DPJ’s policy but economists said this was more a long-term goal.

The country’s demographics, with its ageing population, also posed a problem in the planned shift of focus on the domestic economy, said Action Economics’ Cohen.

“I don’t want to say they can’t play that game anymore, but part of the consumer side is demographics. That makes it more difficult to light a fire,” he said.

Over the past 10 years, domestic demand in Japan had been very sluggish as strong profits generated by bigger companies due to robust exports failed to translate to higher wages, economists said.

“That has been the biggest problem in Japan. Owing to certain rigidities in the labor market, wages did not rise. [They] have been stagnant for the past decade,” Lim of DBS Bank said.

Analysts are still waiting for DPJ’s full range of policies that it hopes to implement over time.


quoted from: ICIS.com

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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Ban on Raw Sugar Import Causes Rise in Price

ISLAMABAD: Retail price of sugar shot up to its highest ever level of over Rs48 per kg after the government rejected an advice from the ministry of industries to lift a ban on import of raw sugar in view of poor sugarcane crop.

Sources told Dawn that the continuing ban, despite repeated requests from the ministry and sugar mills, had benefited big farmers, some federal ministers among them, who sold sugarcane at prices higher than the official rate.

The official price was set at Rs80 per maund, but farmers sold sugarcane to millers at Rs100 to Rs120 because of the shortage.

For the next season, the provincial governments have increased the price to 

Rs100. This is likely to cause a further increase in the price of sugar.

According to an official, the price is likely to go up in Ramazan because Utility Stores cater to the needs of only about 10 per cent of consumers. 

The government had decided to keep the price of sugar at the stores at Rs38 per kg, the official added.

Sources in the industries ministry said the federal cabinet and the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) had been informed in advance that a shortage of cane would lead to an increase in price.

‘We moved summaries to the highest forums, but these were turned down with the contention that import of raw sugar would lower the profit of farmers,’ the sources said.

Millers had also asked the government to import up to 400,000 tons of raw sugar, at least half of it during November last year when the crushing of the new crop began. 

According to the sources, imported raw sugar costs $80 to $90 a ton less than refined sugar. ‘If we had imported raw sugar at that time the sugar price could have gone down by at least Rs5 per kg,’ the sources said.

An official said that the ministry was now proposing to allow the import to meet the shortage next year. ‘We are proposing to the government to allow the private sector to import raw sugar.’

For keeping the sugar price under control, the government will have to raise the subsidy for consumers and increase supply to utility stores from the current 30,000 tons to 100,000 tons.

The retail rate is hovering between Rs44 and Rs48 in major cities. However, some cities have witnessed a price of more than Rs50 per kg in the open market and consumers in some rural areas are paying up to Rs60.


quoted from: DAWN.com

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Tyre Makers in Asia Raise Concerns Over Feedstock BD Surge

SINGAPORE (ICIS news)--Tyre makers in Asia have raised concerns on Tuesday over soaring feedstock butadiene (BD) prices, which may hamper a recovery in demand and impact their fourth-quarter contract negotiations with styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) producers.

BD is the feedstock for SBR, which in turn is used in the manufacture of tyres for the automotive industry.

“The feedstock BD price surge is keenly watched by tyre makers as it may hamper the recovery of the market and any price volatility is not healthy for the industry in the long run,” a major tyre maker said.

BD spot prices have hit $1,000-1,050/tonne (€700-735/tonne) CFR (cost and freight) northeast (NE) Asia, up $200/tonne from a month ago, according to global chemical market intelligence service ICIS pricing.

The hefty BD price increases had wiped out SBR producers' margins, which require a spread of $400-500/tonne between SBR and BD to post any profit. 

“We are closely watching the feedstock BD price trend. If it continues to go up unabated, this will definitely push SBR prices higher and impact our [fourth-quarter] contract negotiations with the SBR makers,” a tyre maker said.

Another tyre maker said: “We can’t see BD prices going up further to $1,100/tonne, as no SBR maker will accept BD at this price level, given that the [third-quarter] SBR contracts have been concluded at $1,300-1,400/tonne.” 

In light of the feedstock BD price escalation, several SBR producers in Asia have raised SBR prices. Some have cut operating rates and may consider extending their SBR plant shutdowns. 

However, the SBR price hikes had met with strong resistance from tyre makers, who have been hard hit by the global recession.

Although tyre makers in Asia are in a relatively better position than their counterparts in Europe and the US, given the double-digit growth in emerging markets such as China and India, they have not been completely insulated from the global recession, which has seen global auto makers such as Toyota Motor post massive losses and General Motors and Chrysler go bankrupt.

Major tyre producer Goodyear announced this week that it will shut down its tyre plant in the Philippines, which will see 500 jobs go. 

“The Philippine plant is not competitive and Goodyear chose to shut it down as a long-term strategic decision. It also reflects the current weak global market conditions, as we do not expect the US auto market to recover until the second half of next year, at the earliest,” an industry source said.

In Europe and the US, several major tyre producers such as Continental and Michelin have shut down production lines and laid off workers.


quoted from: ICIS.com

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Tuesday, July 21, 2009

India’s Spot MEG Imports May Dwindle in August

SINGAPORE (ICIS news)--India may not import as much spot monoethylene glycol (MEG) cargoes in August compared to the past two months as supply from the Middle East is expected to normalise, market sources said on Monday. 

Slowing polyester production would also weigh down on spot MEG demand, they said.

Traders estimated that India procured 20,000 tonnes of MEG from the spot market in June, which represented about a third of the country's total imported MEG cargoes for the month.

Spot import volumes would likely remain at these levels this month before they whittle down in August, they added.

Middle Eastern plants that supply MEG into India on contract basis are now back up and running, with huge new capacities coming on stream from Yanbu National Petrochemical (Yansab).

“There had been some [plant] outages in the Middle East, including [the ones] in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Kuwait and that disrupted MEG supplies into India,” said a trader based in Mumbai.

MEG, along with purified terepthalic acid (PTA), is a raw material used in polyester production.

Demand from new entrants into India’s polyester industry may have also contributed to the spikes in MEG import volumes over the past two months.

“I’ve had some enquiries from Sumeet Industries and Garden Silk Mill. They needed MEG on a spot basis to carry out tests on their new [polycondensation] lines,” said a Singapore-based trader.

But now, polyester makers in India have also started scaling down production partly due to problems in securing feedstock PTA and this could led to softer demand for MEG, industry sources said.

PTA supply has tight in India in June due to problems at the plants of major producer Mitsubishi Chemical (India).

“Since there is not much PTA to go around, some polyester units had scaled back on production and demand for MEG has also become less urgent,” said a source from South Asian Petrochemical, a bottle-grade polyethylene terephthalate maker in Haldia on the east coast of India.

The monsoon season, which poses logistics problems, was also partly to blame for the lull in the downstream textile industry, said market sources.


quoted from: ICIS.com

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Thursday, July 16, 2009

Tokyo Urges BoJ to Extend Crisis Measures

TOKYO Japan’s central bank faced pressure from the government on Tuesday to extend emergency measures aimed at helping cash-strapped firms survive the recession as it began a two-day policy meeting.

Although conditions in credit markets have improved, “it would be safer if the Bank of Japan kept the policy” of buying commercial paper and corporate bonds, Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano told reporters.

The bank has been buying up corporate debt in an effort to unblock a credit crunch brought on by a severe global financial crisis.

Investors are watching to see whether the BoJ will extend those measures, although analysts say a final decision may be delayed until August.

The BoJ is likely to continue the steps beyond September because “it is still not certain that a full-fledged recovery in final demand will materialise in the second half of fiscal 2009 amid the continuing severe financial conditions,” said Mari Iwashita, economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC.

“The financial markets appear calm at the moment and we do not believe the BoJ wants to wake a sleeping dog,” Iwashita added.

The bank is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged at 0.1 per cent on Wednesday. There is speculation that is may also upgrade its economic forecasts in light of recent signs of an improvement in the world’s number two economy.

BoJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa said last week that the worst of the recession appeared to be over.

“Japan’s economic conditions, after deteriorating significantly, have begun to stop worsening,” he told a meeting of BoJ branch managers.

The central bank meeting comes amid growing concerns about the prospect of another bout of deflation in Asia’s largest economy, where wholesale prices fell at the fastest pace on record in June, diving 6.6 per cent on the year.

Japan was stuck in a deflationary spiral for years after an economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, prompting consumers to put off purchases in the hope of further price drops and reducing corporate earnings.

Japan entered recession again in the second quarter of 2008 as its heavy dependence on overseas demand to drive its economic growth left it highly exposed to the global downturn.

Agence France-Presse
quoted from: Oman Tribune

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Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Asian Naphtha Crackers to Run at Full Tilt in July

SINGAPORE (ICIS news)--Asian cracker operators plan to keep ethylene production at close to full rates for the third straight month in July due to prevailing strong derivative polymer prices, industry sources said on Wednesday.

An informal survey among cracker operators in northeast and southeast Asia showed that the bulk of the 67 facilities in the region were expected to operate at 90-100% this month.

“This is the time to ramp up production and push product out,” said one olefins producer. “After September, who knows what will happen?” the source said referring to new capacities which were expected to come on stream after July-August.

Delays in polyethylene (PE) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) exports to Asia from the Middle East and postponements in the start up of new crackers in China had kept polymer prices riding high in June although PE demand had started to taper off following the price spike.

High density polyethylene (HDPE) film grade spot prices were assessed at $1,200-1,280/tonne(€852-909/tonne) CFR (cost and freight) China last week.

This represented a healthy spread of around $300/tonne compared with ethylene spot prices, which were at a eight-month high of $910-950/tonne CFR NE Asia over the same period, according to data from global chemical market intelligence service ICIS pricing.

The fat margins that PE makers currently enjoy have spurred some olefins traders to set ethylene price targets at above $1,000/tonne CFR Asia after recent reported deals at $920-950/tonne FOB (free on board) Taiwan for July delivery. 

The rebound in feedstock naphtha and crude values to above $71/bbl early this week were also expected to provide some support for the monomer.

Several traders said there was a higher chance for ethylene prices in southeast Asia to breach the $1,000/tonne level as recent cracker shutdowns and high derivative polymer operating rates in Iran had severely curtailed the supply of ethylene to southeast Asia from the Middle East. 

Last year, Iran typically shipped out around 10-15 ethylene cargoes each month but average monthly volumes have been whittled down to about half especially in the second quarter of 2009, traders estimate. 

“Buyers in southeast Asia will have to pay more because of the lack of supply from Iran. We are seeing interest from PE makers at close to $1,000/tonne,” said an olefins trader.


quoted from: ICIS

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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Philippine Petron upbeat on Petchems, Mulls Expansion

SINGAPORE (ICIS news)--Philippine major oil refiner Petron Corp intends to boost its petrochemicals production, bullish on the segment's potential contribution to its overall profitability, a senior company executive said on Monday. 

“We are very optimistic about out petrochemicals business over the long term. We expect petrochemical prices to increase as the global economy recovers,” Petron president Eric Recto told ICIS news in an interview.

The company has plans to invest up to $1bn (€710m) to upgrade its 180,000 bbls/day Limay refinery, which would be partly funded by the P10bn ($208m) it recently raised through issuance of fixed rate corporate notes, he said.

“We are looking at supplementing this by issuing preferred shares, but we do not have a firm schedule,” said Recto.

The company is now majority owned by Philippine food and beverage giant San Miguel Corp, whose president - Ramon Ang now sits as the chairman of Petron.

Petron has a $300m petrochemical facility in Limay, Bataan, housing a Petro Fluidised Catalytic Cracking (FCC) unit with a conversion capacity of 19,000 bbls/day and a 140,000 tonne/year propylene recovery unit that was inaugurated in April 2008.

It also has an aromatics plant that can produce 150,000 tonnes/year of benzene, 22,800 tonnes/year of toluene and 220,000 tonnes/year of mixed xylene that was commissioned last month.

The planned upgrade will include a PetroFCC 2 that will enable Petron to fully convert residual products to higher-value gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), diesel and propylene.

“We are doing some feasibility studies prior to finalising our plans,” the Petron executive said.

Petron intends to cater primarily to domestic needs for petrochemicals while keeping an eye out on international markets such as southeast Asia as well as China, Recto said.

“As for export volumes, these will depend on the level of domestic demand for these petrochemical feedstocks,” Recto said.

“We started exporting propylene in April 2008 and we will be exporting benzene and toluene by July. We continue to export isomer grade xylene under term contracts to maximize price potential,” he said.

He cited that mixed xylene enjoys significant premium over other white products such as gasoline and diesel.

Early this month, the company closed a 5,000 tonne isomer xylene tender when prices in Asia were at $760-775/tonne FOB (free on board) Korea, according to global chemical market intelligence service ICIS pricing.

Petron is upbeat about the financial contributions of its new petrochemicals business notwithstanding the difficult business environment.

“We expect our venture into petrochemicals to immediately contribute to our bottomline despite a weak regional market,” Recto said.

He considers the softness in its product prices this year as just “all part of the cyclical nature of the market”.

“We expect prices of petrochemicals to further strengthen as the world economy recovers and demand for plastics and other petrochemical-based products resume growth,” Recto said.

The collapse in demand hit the global petrochemicals sector hard in the fourth quarter of last year as the global economy was racked by the financial and economic crisis. While there was some recovery in prices in the first quarter, most companies registered weak financial results.

Petron posted profits of Philippine peso (Ps)874m in the first quarter but sales volumes in the three-month period were down 20% year-on-year.

The company recorded a heavy net loss of Ps3.9bn in 2008 primarily due to the sharp decline in crude prices in the second half of the year. Crude hit an all-time high of $147/bbl in July last year before plunging to around $30/bbl levels in December.

“Now that the oil market has stabilized, we anticipate a healthier performance in 2009. We have already seen improvement in our first-quarter margins,” Recto said.

“The main challenge right now is the weakness in local fuel demand caused by the economic slowdown, resulting in very tough competition among domestic market players,” he added.


quoted from: ICIS

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Japanese Industrial Output Rises for Third Month

TOKYO - Japan’s industrial output rose for a third straight month, matching the fastest pace in 56 years, as the world’s number two economy claws back from its worst recession on record, data showed on Monday. 


Japanese manufacturers moved swiftly to idle production lines after the global economic downturn sent their exports plunging. Having succeeded in reducing their bloated stockpiles, they are now ratcheting up output again. 

Production rose 5.9 percent in May from the previous month, matching April’s revised growth, which was the strongest since a record 7.9 percent increase in March 1953, according to the trade and industry ministry. 

Market expectations had been for a slightly bigger increase of 6.9 percent. Compared with a year earlier, production was down 29.5 percent, underscoring the drastic measures taken by firms since the economic crisis erupted. 

Output growth is expected to slow to 3.1 percent in June and to 0.9 percent in July, according to manufacturers’ forecasts, the ministry said. 

“Production has been rebounding sharply in response to earlier drastic cuts but the momentum is likely to slow in the months ahead,” said Hiroshi Watanabe, an economist at the Daiwa Institute of Research. 

“Exports are likely to rebound less sharply and so is production,” he said, noting that demand is cooling for Japanese exports of raw materials to China and other Asian nations. 

Production in May was largely boosted by higher output of automobiles, cellphones and electronic devices, which had seen a particularly sharp decline in demand due to the global economic slowdown. 

Japan entered recession in the second quarter of 2008 as its heavy reliance on overseas markets as an engine of economic growth left it highly vulnerable to the fallout from the global economic crisis. 

The Japanese economy suffered its worst contraction on record in the first quarter of 2009, shrinking at an annualised pace of 14.2 percent. 

Recent data have sparked hopes that the worst of the slump in exports and industrial production is now over, but analysts warn that any recovery is likely to be long and slow. 

“Production was rebounding in a V-shape until June but will settle at a gradual rise from July,” said Naoki Murakami, chief economist at Monex Securities. 

Investors are now turning their attention to a closely watched survey of Japanese business confidence due out on Wednesday. 

The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey is expected to show an improvement in sentiment among Japan’s major manufacturers from a record low the previous quarter, helping to underpin improving investor confidence. 

“Things are improving at a dramatic pace in Japan,” Societe Generale’s chief Asia economist, Glenn Maguire, wrote in a note to clients. 

“In contrast to the general impression of Japanese manufacturers as lethargic conglomerates unable to respond quickly to an evolving economy due to consensus based decision making, the exact opposite is the case,” he added. 

“Japanese firms were amongst the first to cut production, wages, and working hours, and are now in a position to respond more flexibly to a rebound in external demand, even if it is soft.”


quoted from: Khaleej Times

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Monday, June 29, 2009

China Finds 'World Scale' Oilfield

China's biggest oil producer says it has discovered a massive new offshore oil field that could become the country's largest domestic petroleum source in a decade. 
 
The field in the Bohai Bay, in eastern China, could hold reserves of up to 2.2 billion barrels, the official Xinhua news agency reported.
The estimated output is equivalent to 5.4 per cent of China's total crude production in 2006, the agency quoted sources with PetroChina as saying. 
 
The find comes amid intense exploration by China's oil companies, looking to reduce the country's rapidly growing dependence on foreign oil.
Such a field, if confirmed, would be a "world-scale discovery", Gavin Thompson, an oil consultant based in Beijing, told the Associated Press. 
 
"In terms of energy security, a 2 billion barrel discovery is going to be very welcome, not only to PetroChina but to China's energy planners." 
 
Jiang Jiemin, vice-chairman and president of PetroChina, said it was "the largest find in China in 10 years". 
 
The Nanpu block in Bohai Bay, partly offshore, covers an area of 1,300-1,500 sq km and is expected to produce high-value light crude, the company said. 
 
Leading importer
 
CNOOC, another leading energy company, announced this week that it had also discovered new oil and gas fields in Bohai Bay, yielding a test output of 1,600 barrels of oil and approximately 10 million cubic feet of gas per day. 
 
Zhu Weilin, vice-president of CNOOC, said of the discovery: "We hope to develop a large-scale cluster of oil and gas fields [there] in the future." 
 
China, which once met its energy needs from domestic oilfields, has turned into a leading importer of fuel since the 1990s amid surging economic growth. 
 
It is now the world's second largest energy consumer after the US. 
 
The country met almost half of its energy needs through imported fuel in 2006 with oil consumption rising by 9.3 per cent to 2.4 billion barrels. 
 
Easing the pressure 
 
Jim Brock, an industry consultant in Beijing, said while the Bohai discovery would help lessen the pressure for more imports, there would still be "significant pressure". 
 
China, he said, would continue to be a major player in the international market. 
 
Economists say Chinese oil demand, driven by economic growth that reached 10.7 per cent in 2006, has strained world supplies and pushed up prices. 
 
The government is trying to improve the energy efficiency of its economy, which consumes several times more units of energy per unit of output than Japan or the US. 
 
Although Chinese drillers have found several big gas fields, the Bohai discovery is the first major oil find since the mid-1990s


quoted from: Al-Jazeera.net

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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Selling More When Everyone Else is Selling Less

As American automakers struggle for survival, South Korea’s Hyundai Motor appears to be gaining on the pack with bold marketing and broad-based initiatives to improve quality 

The company made a splash earlier this year when it unveiled its Hyundai Assurance programme allowing customers to return a car if they lost a job. Competing automakers and other types of businesses soon followed with similar promises.

Years earlier, however, Hyundai had already begun to invest in new models and quality programmes that have put the company on solid footing to profit from the current chaos in the global auto industry, according to Wharton faculty. 

“There’s a sense that what Hyundai is doing on many fronts is working in terms of actually gaining some advantage during the crisis,” says Wharton management professor John Paul MacDuffie, who specialises in the automotive industry and is co-director of the International Motor Vehicle Programme.

In 2008 — a brutal year for the auto business — Hyundai’s global unit sales rose 2 per cent, lifting revenues by 5 per cent. In the first three months of this year, the company’s global market share rose to 4.7 per cent, compared to 4 per cent a year earlier.

MacDuffie says Hyundai first made a name for itself in the United States in the late 1980s when it exported the low-cost Excel to the American market. The car was popular at first, but soon earned a reputation for developing rust and other quality problems. “Sales dropped and it left reputational damage in consumers’ minds,” according to MacDuffie. In the 1990s, Hyundai attempted to introduce a range of high-priced vehicles into the US market, but MacDuffie says the company was “haunted” by its reputation: “Quality has always been Hyundai’s Achilles heel in... the US.”

It was another economic crisis — the 1997 Asian financial collapse — that sowed the seeds for Hyundai’s recent success, according to MacDuffie. He notes that during that global economic slump, the South Korean currency fell sharply. As a result, Hyundai’s competitor Daewoo went into bankruptcy and Hyundai was able to acquire another Korean automaker, Kia Motors. Surviving consolidation in its home market, Hyundai emerged from the crisis with new strength to address its problems.
Risky Moves

Beginning in 2001, MacDuffie says, Hyundai launched a major push to upgrade quality with a daily focus on improvement through new processes at its manufacturing plants, and from better design and engineering. At the same time, to help overcome its reputation for poor quality, the company announced a 10-year, 100,000-mile warranty. The Hyundai programme was far more comforting than the industry’s standard three-year, 30,000-mile warranty, and essentially guaranteed the car for its entire expected working life.

“It was risky, but a powerful impetus to improve quality,” says MacDuffie. “They pulled it off and it helped them make a major jump forward.” This year, Hyundai’s Genesis was named 2009 Car of the Year by independent automotive journalists at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit.

Meanwhile, as it was working to improve quality, the company also was expanding in Europe, the United States and in developing markets. MacDuffie notes that the Hyundai Sonata was selected to be the official taxicab during the Beijing Olympics and the company has been more successful than some of its Japanese competitors in gaining market share in India and China. “That’s another risky, big bet that has paid off well for them,” he says.

In January, Hyundai grabbed attention in the United States as consumers were reeling from the collapse in housing and stock market prices and growing fears of unemployment, by offering to take back a car that is financed or leased by a worker who subsequently loses a job. When it was introduced, the Hyundai Assurance programme was seen as more than just a marketing campaign, but also as psychological affirmation that the economy was not going to collapse entirely.

“What they are doing is empathising with the plight of people who are struggling,” says Wharton marketing professor David J. Reibstein. He observes that the Assurance programme is similar to the warranty that Hyundai used to build confidence among consumers. “There might be hesitancy to buy because people don’t know if they will be employed, but this provides the safety net which allows them to say, ‘I can still afford to be in the market.’ Clearly, the market needed some stimulation and Hyundai was able to provide that stimulation.”

Analysts proclaimed the programme a success when Hyundai reported US sales were up 14 per cent in January compared to the same month a year earlier, while the entire US auto market fell 37 per cent.

Reibstein says the offer was a groundbreaking concept, which was later adopted by other companies. The idea might be used successfully in other industries to inspire confidence among consumers, he adds. Big-ticket durables would likely benefit the most, although he says the idea might also succeed in real estate. Pfizer has a similar programme assuring the users of its products that they will be able to continue to receive medication if they lose their jobs. “It won’t work with every product,” explains Reibstein. “It’s got to be a product with greater risk. What this strategy does is reduce the risk to the customer.”

John Zhang, another Wharton marketing professor, agrees the programme was a good move by Hyundai. He adds that the company’s US customers, who tend to buy cars at lower price points, may be more affected by the recession than other carmakers’ customers. “Economic uncertainty and layoff threats will certainly make customers think twice before they purchase a new car,” he says. “Hyundai’s offer will convince those on the fence to jump over now.”

In addition, the programme is likely to generate strong goodwill toward the company. “Hyundai scores a huge publicity point, by being compassionate towards (those who are) down and beaten,” according to Zhang.

In another surprising marketing move, the company last month offered to send buyers of some Hyundai models up to $333 a month for six months. The catch: The deal applies only to cars on which Hyundai is offering rebates. Buyers may opt for either the rebate or the monthly check (not both), and the value of the two offers is about equal. But such programmes tend to generate consumer buzz.

Wharton management professor Lawrence G. Hrebiniak says Hyundai’s success is the result of a cohesive strategy clearly designed to differentiate the firm from its competitors, combined with a willingness to make substantial investments to carry out the plan.

Hrebiniak adds that the company is now taking a lead in endorsing new, tougher environmental standards for the industry: It has promised to meet new federal energy standards requiring that cars get 35 miles per gallon of gasoline five years ahead of the 2020 deadline. “Something like that is just one more part of differentiation strategy — to say, ‘We’re cool. We’re high quality people,’” says Hrebiniak. “It’s all on TV. They won Car of the Year. They are the first mover in helping people in trouble get over the hump and now they are a leader when it comes to the environment.”

Hyundai is not afraid to spend money to reap benefits down the line, Hrebiniak notes. “Here’s a company that no one really knew about other than it was a South Korean company that made cheap cars. They’re biting the bullet and investing a lot in research and development and advertising while also improving quality, and letting people know that they will be there for them if they need help.”
The Chairman: A Revered Convict

MacDuffie says the Hyundai’s ability to take bold actions may lie in its structure as a family-run company that is dominated by its chairman, Chung Mong-koo. Hyundai Corporation, the automaker’s former parent company, was founded by Chung’s father in 1947. By the time the automotive business, Hyundai Motor Company, was founded in 1967, the corporation had grown into a chaebol — or jaebeol, a conglomerate that benefits from government ties. “Chung is viewed as all powerful, and for him to drive top-down initiatives around quality would no doubt get the attention and responsiveness of everybody in the company,” says MacDuffie. Even after he was arrested in a corruption scandal in 2006, Chung remained in control of the company, according to press reports, using a telephone from his jail cell. He was serving a three-year suspended sentence when he was pardoned by South Korea’s president, Lee Myung-ba, in 2008.

“Within the company, he remained admired and revered,” says MacDuffie. “In the larger population, my sense is that many admire these larger-than-life figures who have driven so much of Korea’s economic growth, and some feel the government is overzealous in prosecuting them.”

He adds that Hyundai’s governance structure is geared toward innovation and improvement, even including members of its parts supply organisation, known as Hyundai Mobius, in the highest levels of the corporation. Many of Hyundai’s top leaders have come through the supplier network. “It seems clear that in an era when a lot more design is done by suppliers, the very close relationship between Mobius and Hyundai Motor has helped Hyundai to have effective designs and good quality,” says MacDuffie.

MacDuffie points out that Hyundai’s attitude was captured in a speech delivered by John Krafcik, CEO of Hyundai Motor America, at the Chicago Auto Show in February. Krafcik called out his peers for their grudging response to environmental and safety concerns, corrupt business practices, outlandish compensation and long-time reliance on government assistance. He compared the experience of a customer entering an auto showroom to going to the dentist.

“While no other industrial sector has a greater impact on the health of our economy, there is no other business with a bigger perception problem. Let’s face it — our reputation as an industry is horrible,” Krafcik said. “In the US, we are viewed for the most part as a slow, dim-witted industry that is typically unresponsive to consumer and environmental needs. If that weren’t bad enough, our executives are criticised for lavish compensation, abundant perks and unnecessary entitlements.

“We need to work more consistently as an industry to change those negative perceptions,” he continued. “By taking personal responsibility for our shortcomings, rather than ignoring them, we gain back our credibility.”

Hrebiniak notes that it is hard to say whether Hyundai’s current strategy will be profitable in the long run. “They may be spending more than they are reaping now, but that could be part of the strategy — to incur costs and hope it all comes together not only in sales and market share, but also in terms of profitability,” he says. “They are spending money to make money. I give them credit.”

Zhang agrees that Hyundai is steadily gaining approval in markets around the world. “This is an unassuming, late-coming company that is consciously trying harder to please customers than anyone else in the marketplace,” he says. “When you try harder, sooner or later, you get noticed. Hyundai will soon, if not already, become a force to be reckoned with for the US and Japanese manufacturers because it gives the most bang for customers’ money.”


quoted from: Khaleej Times

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Thursday, June 18, 2009

Traders Say Price Decline Should Soon Bottom Out at B14,500

Gold prices are expected to come under pressure in the short term in keeping with the global trend, but industry veterans predict prices are unlikely to fall much below 14,500 baht per one-baht weight (15.16 grammes).

Local gold prices remain largely reliant on global price movements and foreign exchange, said Jitti Tangsithpakdi, the president of the Gold Traders Association.

Global gold prices based on the London market fell to US$933.75 an ounce on Tuesday - compared with $937.25 on Friday last week and $975.50 early in the month - as the dollar rose on optimism about its improved world reserve currency status and emerging signs that the US economy has started to recover.

Local prices moved with buying prices on Monday, with gold bars down to 15,100 and ornaments down to 14,887.12 baht, from 15,350 and 15,129.68 baht, respectively, on Friday.

Local buying prices held steady yesterday at 15,100 baht for gold bars and 14,932.6 baht for ornaments, as world gold prices moved up to about $936 an ounce from New York's close of $934.60 on Tuesday.

In Mr Jitti's view, gold still has ample room to rise in the longer term, as the world economic outlook remains unclear and the US economy has yet to recover, despite improving figures for its unemployment rate, consumer confidence and retail sales.

Gold demand remains strong, especially from China and India for their national reserves. Major emerging markets are also considered likely to diversify their reserves away from the greenback, boosting demand for bullion as a hedge against the US dollar.

Kritcharat Hirunyasiri, the president of MTS Gold, a leading wholesaler and retailer of gold ornaments under the Mae Thongsuk brand, said bullion currently made up only 1.6% of India and China's national reserves, a low percentage compared with 20-30% in developed countries and a global average of 10%.

"China, for instance, has secretly bought about 500 tonnes of the precious metal to boost its gold reserves over the last eight months," said Dr Kritcharat.

"China, which currently has about 1,000 tonnes in its reserves, is expected to buy more gold in the near future."

Despite the baht's rise, it is unlikely to increase greatly, as the central bank and the government are closely monitoring its movements to curb their impact on exports, he said.

"I'm feeling upbeat about bullion's prospects as a long-term investment vehicle," said Dr Kritcharat.

"The prices are expected to move at about 15,000 baht or slightly down over the next three months."


By: CHAROEN KITTIKANYA 
Published: 18/06/2009 at 12:00 AM
Quoted from: Bangkok Post

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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Foreign Investment Freefall Eases


Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been in decline for eight months, but the size of the fall in May was smaller than the one in April, probably signaling an easing off.

In comparison with other economies, China is still poised to be among the first choices for global investors in the next five years, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said.

According to the figures released by the ministry yesterday, in May, the FDI dropped 17.8 percent compared to a year earlier - equaling $6.38 billion. The number of newly approved foreign enterprises contracted by 32 percent to 1,649.

The figures exclude those in the financial sector.

 

But May's performance was better than April's, when the FDI registered a negative growth of 22.5 percent.

Between January and May, the FDI fell by 20.4 percent year-on-year to $34.05 billion and newly approved foreign enterprises dropped by 33.8 percent to 7,890.

In the same period, foreign investment in China's central and western regions fell by 35.7 - more than the national average. Newly approved foreign enterprises fell 30.2 percent. For several years prior to the financial crisis, the regions had seen higher rates than the national average.


Yao Jian, a MOFCOM's spokesman, noted the central and western regions' sharp decline: "The coastal areas have the advantage of having gathered a much larger number of foreign investment enterprises in the last three decades." 

Encouraged by confidence from global investors in China's 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan, the "decline in FDI will probably be slowing during the rest of the year," predicted Li Jianfeng, macro-economics and trade analyst with Shanghai Securities, a domestic brokerage.

"There is a good chance that the FDI will register a positive growth in the last quarter, given the low reference point in 2008," he added.

During the first quarter, the FDI decline showed some signs of bottoming out. But in April, the performance went down again by 22.5 percent, compared with a decline of 9.5 percent in March.

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund predicted China's GDP would grow by 6.7 percent this year, 1.3 percentage points lower than the Chinese government's target, but higher than the 5.25 percent of India and 5 percent for Vietnam, two countries vying for FDI.

The stimulus plan is having an effect, said Yao, who pointed out that retail volume rose to 4.88 trillion yuan in the first five months, up by 15 percent year-on-year.

Yao predicted that in 2009, China's FDI will contract by an annualized 20 percent in contrast to last year's growth of 27.65 percent.

quoted from: China Daily

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Monday, June 15, 2009

Mitsubishi to Build Indonesian Petrochemical Facility

Mitsubishi is planning to build a coal-based petrochemical facility in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, according to local news reports. 

The 37ha petrochemical factory will be built with an investment of $1.5bn, writes Antara News. 

The company has completed a feasibility study for the plant's construction, Indonesian Chemical Industry Federation chairman Hidayat Nyakman said. 

The plant will require ten million tonnes of coal.

Mitsubishi is yet to finalise a continuous coal supply mechanism for its plant, Nyakman said. 

The cost of the project is expected to be high as the companies investing in this sector are required to develop infrastructure facilities on their own.


quoted from: Chemicals Technology

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Friday, June 05, 2009

Korea to Enhance Auto Energy Efficiency

The government will help automakers enhance energy efficiency in cars and offer incentives for businesses that save energy, officials said yesterday. 

To achieve its goals, the government will devise policies to cut energy use in both the public and private sectors and inject state funds to develop energy efficiency technology. 

These plans were highlighted at a meeting President Lee Myung-bak chaired at Cheong Wa Dae, officials at the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said. 

Under the plans, the government will invest 150 billion won ($120 million) for R&D activities on fuel efficiency improvement for the next five years and 550-720 billion won to automakers and auto parts makers. 







Local cars are currently about 70 percent as fuel efficient as those made in Japan, officials noted. An average Korean car can go about 11.2 kilometers per liter of fuel, compared with 16.0 km per liter for Japanese vehicles, they added. The United States aims to improve fuel efficiency to 16.6 kilometers per liter of fuel, with Japan pushing for 16.8 kilometers starting in 2016, they added. 

"The country needs to raise fuel efficiency of locally produced vehicles close to the standards set by governments in the United States and Japan," Kim Young-hak, second vice knowledge economy minister, told reporters. 

"The plan will also help local carmakers export their products to overseas markets (that require higher fuel efficiency than now)," he said. 

The government will also implement measures for businesses and public corporations to join the state-led energy-saving campaign. 

The ministry will discuss with the Finance Ministry whether to levy consumption tax on energy-hungry products and offer tax incentives for businesses operating low energy facilities. 

Officials also said the government would set aside about 1.6 trillion won to improve the energy efficiency of consumer and industrial products such as boilers and electronic motors. 

The government is considering asking public companies to use only energy-efficient products. It will also ask private firms and big buildings to voluntarily set energy-saving goal. 

The government will raise the price of electricity and gas supplied to homes. 

"To reduce energy use as a whole, suppliers have to invest in developing renewable energy technology, but consumers also have to bear inconvenience to save energy. The latter is more convenient and costs less," Kim said. 

The official added that the government was considering adopting daylight saving system during the summer months. 

The government announced the package of measures as the country's energy consumption has been rising in recent years. 

Energy consumption by households and the transportation sector gained 2.73 percent from 1997 to 2007 while Japan and Germany saw increases of 0.05 percent and 0.04 percent, respectively. 

The government also expects international oil prices would rise sharply. 

"This is a comprehensive and preemptive measure to save energy in the face of a rising crude oil price by imposing effective rules to control market demand," the vice minister said. 

The price per barrel of Dubai crude, Korea's benchmark, reached $66.3 on Monday, compared with the average $57.9 per barrel recorded in May. 

Korea relies heavily on imported fuel, which makes the country more vulnerable to increases in crude oil prices. 

(christory@heraldm.com) 


By Cho Chung-un
Quoted from: The Korea Herald

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Thursday, May 28, 2009

Japan Exports See 'Modest Recovery'

Japan's economic slump appears to be easing slightly, with exports registering a smaller decline in April than in March.

Government data released on Wednesday showed that exports in April fell 39.1 per cent year-on-year, less than the 45.6 per cent decline posted in March.

That resulted in a trade surplus of about $725m for April, down 85 per cent year-on-year, but the third straight month of surplus following a record deficit in January amid a collapse in worldwide demand for big ticket items such as cars and electronics.

The improved result from March reinforced market views that the worst of the global slump in trade may be over.

Naoki Murakami, chief economist at Monex Securities, told the AFP news agency that the finance ministry data on Wednesday "confirmed exports were recovering" after volumes increased for two consecutive months.

Japan's factory production rose for the first time in six months in March and data due out on Friday is expected to show the first back-to-back increases in output in more than a year in April.

Stronger shipments to China

"Exports are likely to recover gradually from now on and the Japanese economy is expected to follow suit"

Yoshiki Shinke, 
senior economist, Dai-ichi Life Research Institute

Shipments to China, Japan's biggest trade partner, fell 25.8 per cent in April from a year earlier, narrowing the margin of decline for a third straight month and suggesting Beijing's $585bn stimulus package was having an effect.


Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, said the positive signs were due to "progress in inventory correction overseas and a pickup in shipments to China".

"Exports are likely to recover gradually from now on and the Japanese economy is expected to follow suit," he told the Reuters news agency.

Japan posted an annual deficit last year, its first in 28 years. And last week it announced that its economy suffered its sharpest contraction on record in the three months to March, shrinking four per cent compared with the previous quarter.


In an effort to ease the recession, the government has announced a series of economic stimulus packages, including a $163bn injection unveiled last month.


The government upgraded its assessment of Asia's biggest economy for the first time in more than three years this week, saying that while the situation was still tough "the tempo of worsening has become moderate".

Masaaki Shirakawa, the Bank of Japan governor, said on Monday that the country's economy may return to positive growth in the quarter to June, predicting a "mild recovery".

Caution

Some analysts remain cautious, however, on whether global demand will recover enough to prompt Japanese companies to go beyond restocking after a heavy run-down of inventories.

Monex Securities' Murakami conceded that "the pace of the recovery in exports is not very strong".

And Takeshi Minami, the chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, told Reuters that "China's economy is doing better than other countries mostly because of government spending".

"But like Japan, China's economy is driven mostly by exports, so unless we see a stable pickup in global demand its recovery will be limited.

"That bodes ill for Japanese companies," Minami added.


quoted from: Al Jazeera.Net

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Friday, May 15, 2009

APIC ’09: Thai Petchem Group Sees Economic Recovery in H2

SEOUL (ICIS news)--Thailand’s petrochemical association is hopeful of an economic recovery in the second half of the year when the government’s massive fiscal stimulus will have taken root, boosting consumer and business confidence.

In a report presented to the 9th Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC ‘09) on Thursday, the Petrochemical Industry Club (PIC) said the government’s Baht (Bt)1,517bn ($44bn) investment in infrastructure projects over the next three years would be a major boost to the domestic economy.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had announced a Bt117bn stimulus package in January, followed by another Bt1,400bn as the global economic crisis proved to be much harder to contain.

But the export-oriented Thai economy would still shrink this year by about 1% this year after having been badly hit in the first half, according to data from the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB). The economy reeled as demand from major western markets collapsed.

In 2008, the financial and economic turbulence of the last four months of year led to a 4% fall in consumption of major polymers and a 3% decline in production volumes, the PIC report said.

Ethylene consumption had been stable for the whole of last year due to the 20,000 tonne/year expansion of Thai Plastic Chemical’s vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) unit, the report added.

Production volumes of the chemical in the country, however, dipped 6% as cracker operators slashed utilisation rates in response to poor demand.

Propylene output also showed an 8% decline while consumption slipped 5% in 2008.

APIC is an annual gathering of petrochemical industry players. The 2009 conference in Seoul, South Korea will run from 14-15 May.

At the start of the summit on Thursday, the conference hall that can accommodate about 1,000 people was half empty when the first few presentations were made.

Concerns about the global outbreak of H1N1 flu had prompted some petrochemical companies to forego attendance to one of the largest industry gatherings in Asia. The host country South Korea has some confirmed cases of H1N1 flu infection.


quoted from: www.ICIS.com

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Monday, May 04, 2009

Asian Macro Economic Overview

MAKING AN accurate prediction for the wrong reasons is better than being wrong on both counts.

Most economists got it wrong on Asia. Now it’s up to China, and perhaps eventually India, to fill a gap left by the decline in Western consumption

"I said in 2004 that the second half of 2008 would mark the end of the up cycle for petrochemicals because of supply and demand fundamentals. But I didn't see the financial crisis coming," says a Southeast Asian-based petrochemical consultant.

Many of the macroeconomists were doubly wrong, predicting that Asia would not suffer a severe downturn, because of the decoupling theory.

So much for decoupling: Japan's economy will shrink by 6.2% in 2009, its worst performance since World War II, according to the International Monetary Fund in its latest World Economic Outlook, released in April.

Only three of the Asia-Pacific countries in the G20 will register positive growth this year - China at 6.5%, India 4.5% and Indonesia 2.5%, the IMF adds. The other Asia-Pacific nations in the G20 facing negative growth are Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Export-focused economies are being hammered the hardest, raising the question over the validity of their growth models. 

Western growth could remain subpar for many years. So Asian economies heavily reliant on overseas trade are hoping that China and India will eventually fill the gap left by the retreat of the US and European consumer. 

Singapore is a classic case. The island state's exports fell by 17% in March compared with the year before and GDP could shrink by as much as 9%. At least, though, the March fall in exports represented a decelerating decline, and trade with China was sharply up.

South Korea, too, saw a slowdown in the rate at which its economy contracted in Q1 over the fourth quarter last year, with this other export-dependent economy also benefiting from stronger trade with China. 

Shipments have been boosted by the won depreciating against the US dollar by more than 30% since the start of the year.

The South Korean petrochemical industry exports around 50% of its polymer production to China - hence, a great deal rides on a sustained and accelerating recovery in Asia's most-important economy. 

THE CHINA GROWTH CONUNDRUM

"My personal view is that the fundamentals are there. Q2-Q3 is supposed to be the peak production season in China and the government is keen to support GDP growth," says a senior Singapore-based executive with a leading Western commodity and specialty chemical producer.

"The new money-supply policy and subsidies to consumers - for example, discounts for rural residents who buy home appliances and rebates for new home buyers - are helping the market."

Housing sales by value rose by 36% in March, which, according to The Economist, is an important measure of recovery. Most of the job losses among migrant workers have been the result of a slowdown in construction, which began in 2007 when the government restricted credit growth.

Retail sales grew by 14.7% in March, over 11.5% in February, and Q1 GDP growth was still 6.1% - although this was less than half the level in mid-2007.

"This is healthy by the standards of any other country. The first-quarter number has led me to believe that the government will hit its target of 8% growth for the full year," the senior executive adds.

Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has, though, reportedly warned against "blind optimism" over the speed of the recovery, adding that risks remain from overcapacity in some industries, job losses and low investment in the private sector.

A boost in industrial production has left "the unresolved question of who is going to absorb (China's) excess capacity if the US is no longer willing to play the role," writes Michael Pettis on his blog, China Financial Markets.

China's trade surplus was $62.6bn in Q1 this year, versus $41.7bn for Q1 2008. 

This is a sign that China is trying to export its way out of oversupply, adds Pettis, a professor at Peking's University of Guanghua School of Management, who formerly worked on Wall Street in trading, capital markets and corporate finance.

This supports anecdotal reports picked up from chemical traders and producers that some factories are being run hard in order to keep people in jobs.

Pressure is also being exerted on provincial officials to do their bit to achieve the government's overall growth target of 8%, resulting again in stories that raw materials and semi- and finished goods are being stockpiled.

China is also said to have bought large volumes of copper, iron ore and aluminum for the second half of the year - as well as raising the operating rates of aluminum smelters. 

The local polyolefin industry might also be stocking up: more than 600,000 tonnes of polyethylene (PE) was imported in February, according to traders contacted by ICIS pricing - the biggest monthly volume since 2005.

A similar quantity - much of it from the West because of Middle East production problems and strong arbitrage - is expected to have been shipped in March.

Huge percentage increases in imports took place in January and February for most grades of PE and polypropylene (PP), according to China Customs. "Where's it all going? I think into the inventories of traders and distributors who are speculating on stronger prices in H2," says a market analyst with a global polyolefin producer.

So, if blind optimism has over-inflated expectations, China might end up adding to global deflationary pressures through very cheap reexports of finished goods.

US consumer spending is still weak so where would all this extra stuff go?

Private companies - the main engine of economic growth - are struggling to get financing while the state-owned enterprises receive a flood of loans, Pettis adds. There could be a poor return on money spent versus jobs creation. For example, CNY1 trillion ($14bn) is being spent in Henan province to create 650,000 jobs, he says.

If this same sum had been spent on giving workers salaries of CNY3,000 a month (more than twice the average salary of migrant workers) this would have been enough to pay the wages of 650,000 people for 43 years, he calculates.

"I am sure that longer term, China will get it right," the petrochemical consultant says. "The amount being spent on infrastructure in western China is the equivalent of the US Highways Act in the 1950s, inspired by Eisenhower. This could really open up these markets. I also believe that China will introduce very good national health care and pension schemes to unlock much more domestic-growth potential."

But as for the next 12-18 months, the consultant admits that growth in China is far too uncertain to call.

INDIA'S FOOD CRISIS

"Despite years of robust economic growth, India scored worse than nearly 25 sub-Saharan African countries and all of South Asia, except Bangladesh," says the Washington, D.C.-based International Food Policy Research Institute in its 2008 Global Hunger Index.

India is home to the world's biggest food-insecure population, with 200m falling into this category, the nonprofit organ-ization adds.

This is a world away from India's booming companies, luxury hotels, modern shopping centers and resulting big percentage increases in chemical and plastics sales.

"The Indian market has been fantastic. PE demand growth has remained very strong despite the economic crisis," says a source with a North American polyolefin player.

"India depends more on domestic consumption as it's less tied to export trade than China."

Indian chemical consumption - and its overall economy - remains much smaller than China's because of a lack of industrial development and the huge gap between the urban rich and rural poor. 

Success in closing the gap might hinge on the outcome of the General Election, which was taking place as this feature went to press and is due to end on May 13.

Coalition politics can make implementing effective development policies a slow process, and one that ends up involving lots of compromises. 

JAPAN'S DILEMMA

The collapse in global trade has hit Japan exceptionally hard because it was so heavily export-dependent.

Yet another big government stimulus package in Japan is aimed at breaking this long-standing dependence through boosting domestic consumption. But decades-old systemic problems of course are unlikely to be fixed over just the next few years, meaning that recovery will hinge on what happens globally.

"Current ethylene production reflects what's happening with the overall economy. Cracker operating rates of around 70% indicate that output is for the domestic market only," adds the petrochemical consultant.

Ethylene operating rates were at 100.3% in February 2008 but had fallen to 74.3% for the same month this year, estimates Mitsubishi Chemical.

This has resulted in output - when again the two months are compared - falling from more than 7m tonnes to 4.63m tonnes, adds Mitsubishi.

Japan's chemical and plastics industry is heavily tied into export trade - both directly through shipments of marginal tonnes of production, mainly to China, and indirectly through bigger-volume sales to manufacturing giants such as Toyota.

Lots of single product mergers during the 1990s and early 2000s - in polymers such as PE, PP and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) - helped boost efficiency. 

The question now is whether the economic crisis will prompt more industry consolidation in Japan, South Korea and elsewhere in Asia. 

In the meantime, at a macroeconomic level, the big hope is that China can return to double-digit GDP growth - and quickly.


quoted from: www.ICIS.com

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Asian Nations Set Up $120b Crisis Fund

NUSA DUA (Indonesia) Thirteen East and Southeast Asian countries agreed on Sunday to set up an emergency $120 billion fund to provide liquidity to any of them in need of help during the economic downturn.

Japan also unveiled a scheme to supply up to 6 trillion yen ($61.54 billion) to support nations hit by economic crisis.

The moves, announced on the sidelines of the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) annual meeting on the Indonesian island of Bali, could lead to some optimism in regional markets on Monday, one analyst said.

“This news is not a surprise but confirmation may be taken by the optimists as a reason to continue the recent rally,” said Kirby Daley, senior strategist at Newedge Group in Hong Kong.

“It’s definitely a step in the right direction for Asia to wean itself from dependence on the West. However, implementation is unlikely to have a sustainable impact on Asian economies in the absence of a robust US consumer.”

Under the plan, China and Japan would each contribute 32 per cent to the regional fund, known as the Chiang Mai Initiative.

South Korea would provide 16 per cent while the rest would come from the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean). The fund will give emergency balance of payments support in case any of the countries experienced the kind of capital flight that marked the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98.

“The current global situation requires more concerted efforts to enhance confidence, maintain financial stability, and prevent further decline in economic growth,” a joint statement by the region’s finance ministers said.

“The deepening global economic downturn, coupled with heightened risk aversion in financial markets, (has) adversely impacted trade and investment in the region.”

The fund will be launched by the end of the year, and a surveillance unit to monitor the region’s economies will be established with the help of the ADB, it said.

In addition, the meeting decided to set up a $500 million guarantee for local currency corporate bonds issued within the region.

Asean includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Underlining the importance of the Asian regional bond market, Standard & Poor’s announced it was launching an Asean credit rating scale that provides additional transparency about the credit risk of borrowers active in the region.

ADB president Haruhiko Kuroda also told the bank’s annual meeting that Asia needs to develop its debt markets to better channel the region’s massive savings into investments and stave off another crisis.


quoted from: Oman Tribune

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