OPEC Lowers World Oil Demand Forecast, Cuts GDP Estimates
LONDON (ICIS news)--The OPEC has revised down its world oil demand forecasts for 2008 and 2009 reflecting the deteriorating economic climate, it said in its monthly oil market report released on Friday.
The organisation, which represents 13 oil producing countries, lowered its forecast for 2009 by 0.4m bbl/day to 85.1m bbl/day, representing a decline of 0.6m bbl/day from the 2008 estimate.
Demand for 2008 was revised down by 0.1m bbl/day to 85.7m bbl/day, meaning a drop of 0.2m bbl/day from 2007 levels.
The downward revisions came as OPEC lowered its forecast for global economic growth by 0.8 percentage points to 0.4%.
“This reflects the continuing deterioration in OECD economies where internal demand is failing to compensate for the significant shortfall in exports,” OPEC said in its report.
“The US labour market continues to worsen…key Asian countries are suffering from a large decline in exports,” added the organisation, which represents more than 40% of global oil supply.
OPEC said its December agreement in Oran, Algeria, to lower global production had halted the downward slide in crude prices, despite the stream of negative economic data.
Cold weather in Europe and the US had revived demand for winter fuels, improving refining margins, while disruption to Russian natural gas supplies provided support earlier in the month, said the organisation.
In the first drop since 1999, non-OPEC supply was expected to have declined by 0.2m bbl/day in 2008 following a downward revision of 230,000 bbl/day on lower than expected performance in the US, Canada, China and Sudan, OPEC said.
Non-OPEC supply was expected grow by 0.5m bbl/day in 2009 after a minor downward revision.
OPEC supply dropped 959,000 bbl/day in January compared with December, to 28.71m bbl/day, the organisation said, citing secondary sources.
The organisation, which represents 13 oil producing countries, lowered its forecast for 2009 by 0.4m bbl/day to 85.1m bbl/day, representing a decline of 0.6m bbl/day from the 2008 estimate.
Demand for 2008 was revised down by 0.1m bbl/day to 85.7m bbl/day, meaning a drop of 0.2m bbl/day from 2007 levels.
The downward revisions came as OPEC lowered its forecast for global economic growth by 0.8 percentage points to 0.4%.
“This reflects the continuing deterioration in OECD economies where internal demand is failing to compensate for the significant shortfall in exports,” OPEC said in its report.
“The US labour market continues to worsen…key Asian countries are suffering from a large decline in exports,” added the organisation, which represents more than 40% of global oil supply.
OPEC said its December agreement in Oran, Algeria, to lower global production had halted the downward slide in crude prices, despite the stream of negative economic data.
Cold weather in Europe and the US had revived demand for winter fuels, improving refining margins, while disruption to Russian natural gas supplies provided support earlier in the month, said the organisation.
In the first drop since 1999, non-OPEC supply was expected to have declined by 0.2m bbl/day in 2008 following a downward revision of 230,000 bbl/day on lower than expected performance in the US, Canada, China and Sudan, OPEC said.
Non-OPEC supply was expected grow by 0.5m bbl/day in 2009 after a minor downward revision.
OPEC supply dropped 959,000 bbl/day in January compared with December, to 28.71m bbl/day, the organisation said, citing secondary sources.
Source: www.ICIS.com
