Gold Analysts’ Consensus Sees 2% Slide to $855/ounce
By Tom Stundza -- Purchasing, 1/21/2009 12:09:00 PM
A survey of market mavens finds them forecasting the London fix price for gold averaging $855/troy ounce in 2009, a marginal 2% decline from the $872 average of 2008. However, there are some bullish analysts who suggest that a surge in investment demand will keep gold pricing elevated and cause higher price adjustments as the year moves along
Interestingly, price predictions are all over the map. The highest forecast for the precious metal is an average $910, according to the median forecast of 20 analysts, traders and investors surveyed by Bloomberg News Service. However, other forecasts range from $906 (Mitsui & Co.) to $800 (J.P. Morgan Securities). The other forecasts are $901 from MKS Finance, the Geneva-based precious metals and financial services group; the London Bullion Market Association, $881; Patricia M. Mohr, vice president of economics for the Scotiabank Group, $850; Purchasingdata.com, $838, and Abare (the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics), $810.
“Given the upheavals of the last six months, it is not surprising that the forecast prices are mixed,” says the London Bullion Market Association. In the second half of last year, gold’s monthly price ranged from a high of $940 to a low of $760.
Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS Ltd. of London forecasts that gold prices hit fresh highs of $915 in the first half of 2009--as compared with $841 in the second half of 2008. That’s because he expects a surge in investment demand by speculators who still see gold as a safe haven in the face of ongoing financial uncertainty and malfunctioning stock and bond markets. On the other hand, he believes that six-month world jewelry demand will be weak--falling 11% year-over-year to 881 metric tons--due to high and volatile gold prices ahead and generally weaker global economic growth.
A survey of market mavens finds them forecasting the London fix price for gold averaging $855/troy ounce in 2009, a marginal 2% decline from the $872 average of 2008. However, there are some bullish analysts who suggest that a surge in investment demand will keep gold pricing elevated and cause higher price adjustments as the year moves along
Interestingly, price predictions are all over the map. The highest forecast for the precious metal is an average $910, according to the median forecast of 20 analysts, traders and investors surveyed by Bloomberg News Service. However, other forecasts range from $906 (Mitsui & Co.) to $800 (J.P. Morgan Securities). The other forecasts are $901 from MKS Finance, the Geneva-based precious metals and financial services group; the London Bullion Market Association, $881; Patricia M. Mohr, vice president of economics for the Scotiabank Group, $850; Purchasingdata.com, $838, and Abare (the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics), $810.
“Given the upheavals of the last six months, it is not surprising that the forecast prices are mixed,” says the London Bullion Market Association. In the second half of last year, gold’s monthly price ranged from a high of $940 to a low of $760.
Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS Ltd. of London forecasts that gold prices hit fresh highs of $915 in the first half of 2009--as compared with $841 in the second half of 2008. That’s because he expects a surge in investment demand by speculators who still see gold as a safe haven in the face of ongoing financial uncertainty and malfunctioning stock and bond markets. On the other hand, he believes that six-month world jewelry demand will be weak--falling 11% year-over-year to 881 metric tons--due to high and volatile gold prices ahead and generally weaker global economic growth.
Source: www.purchasing.com
